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Olympic 2016 Rio - rules and qualifications
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Gergely



Joined: 27 Oct 2003
Posts: 2260
Location: Budapest, Hungary

PostPosted: Fri, 18-Mar-2016 12:51    Post subject: Reply with quote

canrgmom wrote:
Gergely,

Any idea why Piscupescu is out? Injury? She is listed as competing in Lisbon WC.

Also, any predictions for who will take those last 7 spots for Olympics?


I've heard that it's due to injury. yes.

Whew, always hard to tell. This part of the field is so close, even one drop can make or break it.

I'd say Ruprecht will get one place. She's doing great so far in the season. One of the Uzbek girls will do it as well, but I think there is a chance for Serdyukova over Nazarenkova. Same for the Finnish, probably Volkova will get a spot (btw what happened to Tikkanen since Izmir? She seems to be going downhill). I'd say Bertolini gets another one.

Ashirbayeva should get there, but she was really hit and miss this year. Berezko and Bezzoubenko are quite unpredictable, especially the latter. Judged by sheer ability they have every chance to do it. Filiorianu has the ability to get there but it will be huge pressure without Piscupescu and she's not always reliable.

Dóra Vass and Liu Jiahui will be in contention I think - Dóra has done two good AAs in a row (something she missed for years) and has a ten-year experience which comes in handy.
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Justin



Joined: 26 Oct 2003
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PostPosted: Tue, 29-Mar-2016 12:10    Post subject: Reply with quote

With less than one month to go (and one more world cup in Pesaro on the programme) before the Test Event will start, I have tried to compare the results of the four major tournaments we have had so far this season, namely:

* Moscow Grand Prix
* Espoo World Cup
* Lisbon World Cup
* Thiais Grand Prix

(Thanks Gergely for coining this)

I will list the best all around results per gymnast below, and their next best results

Code:

Individuals:
 1. Nicol RUPRECHT           (AUT) - 70.617 Thiais - 69.016 Moscow
 2. Ekaterina VOLKOVA        (FIN) - 69.900 Espoo  - 67.499 Moscow
 3. Anastasiya SERDYUKOVA    (UZB) - 69.900 Espoo  - 69.700 Thiais - 68.832 Moscow
 4. Veronika BERTOLINI       (ITA) - 69.800 Lisbon - 68.850 Espoo
 5. Sabina ASHIRBAYEVA       (KAZ) - 69.700 Lisbon - 69.300 Espoo  - 66.933 Moscow
 6. Dora VASS                (HUN) - 69.034 Thiais - 67.199 Moscow
 7. Patricia BEZZOUBENKO     (CAN) - 68.900 Lisbon - 66.916 Moscow - 66.050 Espoo  - 64.600 Thiais
 
 8. Ana Luiza FILIORIANOU    (ROU) - 68.750 Lisbon - 67.016 Moscow
 9. Jana BEREZKO-MARGGRANDER (GER) - 68.534 Thiais - 63.582 Moscow
10. Monika MICKOVA           (CZE) - 67.750 Lisbon - 67.284 Thiais - 65.181 Moscow
11. Lilit HARUTYUNYAN        (ARM) - 66.750 Espoo  - 65.098 Moscow
12. Jouki TIKKANEN           (FIN) - 66.550 Espoo
13. Alessia RUSSO            (ITA) - 66.550 Lisbon - 66.350 Espoo
14. SHANG Rong               (CHN) - 66.000 Espoo
15. Viktoria BOGDANOVA       (EST) - 65.348 Moscow
16. Natalia GAUDIO           (BRA) - 65.300 Thiais - 60.850 Lisbon
17. LIU Jiahui               (CHN) - 64.750 Espoo
18. Aliya ASSIMOVA           (KAZ) - 64.550 Espoo  - 63.900 Moscow
19. Karla DIAZ ARNAL         (MEX) - 63.583 Thiais - 60.482 Moscow

No results: Elizaveta NAZARENKOVA (UZB), Carmel KALLEMAA (EST), Spela KRATOCHWILL (SLO), Laura JUNG (GER)

Groups:
1. FIN - 34.000 Thiais - 33.550 Espoo  - 32.600 Moscow
2. AZE - 33.400 Thiais - 31.900 Lisbon
3. GER - 33.000 Thiais - 33.000 Moscow

4. GRE - 31.750 Lisbon
5. BRA - 30.100 Lisbon - 29.050 Thiais
6. UZB - 29.550 Thiais

No results: KOR


So, anyone up for predictions?
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Hoops and Grand Fouettes



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PostPosted: Tue, 29-Mar-2016 19:29    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going to need Filiorianu and Ashirbayeva to qualify. And Dora Vass has been on fire this season so far.
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canrgmom



Joined: 24 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Wed, 30-Mar-2016 0:16    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the qualifiers will be:

Nazarenkova (or Serdyukova)
Ruprecht
Bertolini
Ashirbayeva
Volkova

The last 2 spots will be fought out by Vass, Berezko-Margrander, Bezzoubenko, Filiorianou, Liu Jiahui and my dark horse pick, Lilit Harutyunyan, who has been nipping at the heels of these others over the last couple of competitions and is on the upswing.
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Gergely



Joined: 27 Oct 2003
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Location: Budapest, Hungary

PostPosted: Wed, 30-Mar-2016 11:51    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hoops and Grand Fouettes wrote:
I'm going to need Filiorianu and Ashirbayeva to qualify. And Dora Vass has been on fire this season so far.


I have no clue what happened to her, after a lot of struggling in recent years, but I'm obviously fine with it Mr. Green She knows that this is her last chance and she got herself together really well.
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Gergely



Joined: 27 Oct 2003
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Location: Budapest, Hungary

PostPosted: Wed, 30-Mar-2016 12:49    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, I've made a sheet of all the international competition results this year, narrowed down to the test event participants. I've averaged their AA scores.

Some interesting bits:
-> no-one did more than 4 events
-> only Ruprecht was able to break the 70 point limit (twice)
-> Bezzoubenko's and Volkova's scores are remarkably chaotic, showing a 4/5 point gap between their best and their worst AA performance. Not a sign of stability
-> of all the gymnasts, only Spela Kratochwill seems yet to appear
-> it looks to me that the Test Event gymnasts tried mostly appear on "friendly" grounds so far, but I might be mistaken.

THE AVERAGE SCORES ARE
GYMNAST COUNTRY Average AA
1. Nicol Ruprecht AUT 69,977
2. Anastasiya Serdyukova UZB 69,477
3. Veronica Bertolini ITA 69,325
4. Dóra Vass HUN 67,958
5. Ana Luiza Filiorianu ROU 67,922
6. Sabina Ashirbayeva KAZ 67,871
7. Ekaterina Volkova FIN 67,283

8. Elizaveta Nazarenkova UZB 67,200
9. Jana Berezko-Marggrander GER 66,789
10. Patricia Bezzoubenko CAN 66,617
11. Alessia Russo ITA 66,450
12. Carmel Kallemaa EST 66,350
13. Shang Rong CHN 66,000
14. Monika Micková CZE 65,891
15. Viktoria Bogdanova EST 65,499
16. Lilit Harutyunyan ARM 65,166
17. Jouki Tikkanen FIN 65,150
18. Liu Juahui CHN 64,750
19. Laura Jung GER 64,691
20. Aliya Assymova KAZ 62,500
21. Karla Díaz Arnal MEX 62,033
22. Spela Kratochwill SLO N/A

This would send Ruprecht, Serdyukova, Bertolini, Vass, Filiorianu, Ashirbayeva and Volkova to Rio.
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Gergely



Joined: 27 Oct 2003
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PostPosted: Wed, 30-Mar-2016 15:52    Post subject: Reply with quote

In infographic:

https://infogr.am/rhythmic_gymnastics_the_race_to_rio
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susana



Joined: 26 Mar 2015
Posts: 86
Location: Madrid

PostPosted: Fri, 1-Apr-2016 16:51    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gergely wrote:
So, I've made a sheet of all the international competition results this year, narrowed down to the test event participants. I've averaged their AA scores.

Some interesting bits:
-> no-one did more than 4 events
-> only Ruprecht was able to break the 70 point limit (twice)
-> Bezzoubenko's and Volkova's scores are remarkably chaotic, showing a 4/5 point gap between their best and their worst AA performance. Not a sign of stability
-> of all the gymnasts, only Spela Kratochwill seems yet to appear
-> it looks to me that the Test Event gymnasts tried mostly appear on "friendly" grounds so far, but I might be mistaken.

THE AVERAGE SCORES ARE
GYMNAST COUNTRY Average AA
1. Nicol Ruprecht AUT 69,977
2. Anastasiya Serdyukova UZB 69,477
3. Veronica Bertolini ITA 69,325
4. Dóra Vass HUN 67,958
5. Ana Luiza Filiorianu ROU 67,922
6. Sabina Ashirbayeva KAZ 67,871
7. Ekaterina Volkova FIN 67,283

8. Elizaveta Nazarenkova UZB 67,200
9. Jana Berezko-Marggrander GER 66,789
10. Patricia Bezzoubenko CAN 66,617
11. Alessia Russo ITA 66,450
12. Carmel Kallemaa EST 66,350
13. Shang Rong CHN 66,000
14. Monika Micková CZE 65,891
15. Viktoria Bogdanova EST 65,499
16. Lilit Harutyunyan ARM 65,166
17. Jouki Tikkanen FIN 65,150
18. Liu Juahui CHN 64,750
19. Laura Jung GER 64,691
20. Aliya Assymova KAZ 62,500
21. Karla Díaz Arnal MEX 62,033
22. Spela Kratochwill SLO N/A

This would send Ruprecht, Serdyukova, Bertolini, Vass, Filiorianu, Ashirbayeva and Volkova to Rio.


But I thought it would be six places in the Pre-Olympic, not seven... Why is it?
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Hoops and Grand Fouettes



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PostPosted: Fri, 1-Apr-2016 23:03    Post subject: Reply with quote

No wild card is needed for the Americas so it's allocated to the test event.
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susana



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PostPosted: Sat, 2-Apr-2016 14:42    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hoops and Grand Fouettes wrote:
No wild card is needed for the Americas so it's allocated to the test event.

Oh that's right, I did the math wrong
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Hoops and Grand Fouettes



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PostPosted: Sat, 2-Apr-2016 23:34    Post subject: Reply with quote

After Pesaro

AVERAGE SCORES AA:
1. Nicol Ruprecht AUT: 70.011
2. Veronica Bertolini ITA: 69.85
3. Sabina Ashirbayeva KAZ: 69.04575
4. Anastasia Serdyukova UZB: 68.9955
5. Ekaterina Volkova FIN: 68.966
6. Dora Vass HUN: 68.37767
7. Ana Luiza Filiorianu ROU: 68.272

8. Elizaveta Nazarenkova UZB: 68.05
9. Patricia Bezzoubenko CAN: 66.9732
10. Monika Mickova CZE: 66.6663
11. Alessia Russo ITA: 66.65
12. Viktoria Bogdanova EST: 66.5327
13. Jana Berezko Marggrander GER: 66.4553
14. Carmel Kallemaa EST: 66,350
15. Lilit Harutyunyan ARM: 65.999
16T. Shang Rong CHN: 65.975
16T. Jouki Tikkanen FIN: 65.975
18. Liu Juahui CHN: 65.725
19. Laura Jung GER: 65.0205
20. Aliya Assymova KAZ: 65.01667
21. Karla Diaz Arnal MEX: 63.455
22. Spela Kratochwill SLO: N/A
- Natalia Gaudio BRA: 63.233

If this will predict who qualifies, no one will have changed before Thiais, but several of the other places have shifted.
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Jonathan



Joined: 26 Oct 2003
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PostPosted: Tue, 5-Apr-2016 9:39    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a result of this strange qualification system, we may be in a situation whereby 2 gymnasts from Uzbekistan qualify and we only have one from stronger nations with a better second gymnast like Ukraine and Israel Confused
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Justin



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PostPosted: Tue, 5-Apr-2016 11:42    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nah, UZB only gets one berth if both Serdyukova and Nazarenkova are qualified. The berth is nominative, so I expect a fierce battle between those two Wink.
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M.Brzeska-Fan



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PostPosted: Mon, 11-Apr-2016 13:08    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nicol Ruprecht and Laura Jung or Jana Berezko-Marggrander should qualify for Rio! Wink

Also the German group of course Smile

What are the exact dates for the test event? When does it begin and when end?

Should we have a separate Thread for the test event? I think so.
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Hoops and Grand Fouettes



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PostPosted: Mon, 11-Apr-2016 15:29    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Rhythmic test event is the 21st and 22nd. Here's the schedule: http://www.aquecerio.com/en/gymnastics/programme#bloco6
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